Numerous methods and tools have been invented for market timing. They
have probably worked fine for their authors. The market is constantly improving
and eliminating one inefficiency after another, thus rendering yesterdays
methods useless. Often the authors are cashing in another round by selling
the tools. That is what appears to be the winning strategy on market timing
tools and methods business:
- Develop your method or tool and use until it works
- Save account statements to prove the profits
- Publish ands sell the tools/methods using account statements
from previous step.
Probably good business, wouldn't you do the same? Constant adjustment to the current trading patterns and learning must be a required characteristics of any successful method. Unfortunately, I have not found many with this characteristic. The exception are various tools claiming to use some form of neural network as the forecasting core. Neural networks are structurally quite simple programs. Since I am a reasonably good programmer, I built them myself for experiments instead of using a shrink-wrapped product.
Below I'll give brief comments on some of the tools/methods I have tried.
Note, that this is my personal experience which should not be interpreted
as comprehensive test or evaluation. May be I am just not smart enough
to discover their great value. You should consult Futures
Truth (or other similar service) for objective evaluation of results.
I welcome questions and discussion on any of my conclusions and assumptions.
Please drop me an e-mail, thank you.
Raymond Raud